How LTV changed a beauty brand's bidding

Item: Profit Bid
Rating: 5
Author: Sophie L.

A Shopify beauty brand was rejecting profitable acquisition because first-order POAS looked thin. LTV-adjusted POAS revealed the real value and unlocked scale.

Store: Shopify
Ads: Google Ads
Duration: 120 days

The challenge

First-order POAS on prospecting sat near 95%, so the team throttled acquisition. But repeat purchase rate was strong — customers reordered serums every 6–8 weeks. Judging campaigns on the first order alone was leaving growth on the table.

Approach

Connected Shopify orders, cost per item, and subscription reorders.
Built cohort LTV curves by acquisition channel.
Set LTV-adjusted POAS targets for prospecting campaigns.
Kept retention campaigns on immediate-profit targets.
Monitored payback period to cap cash risk.

Performance

First-order vs LTV-adjusted POAS

Profit Bid

First-order POAS stayed flat; counting reorder profit revealed customers worth 2.4× the first sale.

First-order POAS98%
Roughly flat by design
LTV-adjusted POAS (M6)236%
Repeat profit counted
New customers/mo1,840
+60% acquisition

Results

First-order POAS

95%98%

Roughly flat by design

LTV-adjusted POAS (M6)

95%236%

Repeat profit counted

New customers/mo

1,1501,840

+60% acquisition

Payback period

n/a41 days

Within target

“We were turning off our best acquisition because the first order looked break-even. LTV-adjusted POAS gave us permission to grow.”
— Sophie L., Growth lead, beauty DTC